- Back to menu
- Back to menuMga presyo
- Back to menuPananaliksik
- Back to menuPinagkasunduan
- Back to menu
- Back to menu
- Back to menu
- Back to menu
- Back to menuMga Webinars at Events
Ang Credit Rating ng America ay Tumutulong sa Paggawa ng Kaso para sa Bitcoin
Ang pagbaba ng utang ni Fitch sa US ngayong linggo ay isang babala sa mga gumagawa ng patakaran sa Amerika at binibigyang-diin kung bakit mahalaga ang Bitcoin at iba pang bukas na sistema ng pananalapi, sabi ni Michael Casey.
Sa tuwing makikita ang credit rating ng U.S. – tulad ng ginawa nito Ang sorpresang pag-downgrade ni Fitch sa linggong ito – ito ay isang pagkakataon upang talakayin ang koneksyon sa pagitan ng pera, utang at kapangyarihan at upang tuklasin kung paano maaaring mapataas ng Bitcoin at Crypto ang mga relasyong iyon.
Upang magsimula, tandaan natin na bagama't ang pag-downgrade ay nagpapakita ng katamtamang mas mahirap na pananaw para sa pananalapi ng gobyerno ng US, ang aktwal na default ng US ay lubos na hindi malamang, sa kabila ng laro ng Congressional ng debt-ceiling-chicken na pana-panahong nagpapalabas ng usapan tungkol sa isang "teknikal na default." Ang mga bansang naglalabas ng utang sa sarili nilang pera ay bihirang makaligtaan ang mga pagbabayad sa utang sa nominal na kahulugan, dahil T nila kailangan. Maaari lamang silang mag-print ng pera upang magbayad.
Nagbabasa ka Pera Reimagined, isang lingguhang pagtingin sa mga teknolohikal, pang-ekonomiya at panlipunang mga Events at uso na muling tumutukoy sa ating relasyon sa pera at nagbabago sa pandaigdigang sistema ng pananalapi. Mag-subscribe upang makuha ang buong newsletter dito.
Siyempre, ang pag-imprenta ng pera upang bayaran ang mga utang ay hindi nagpapaalam sa mga pamahalaan. Ang paggawa nito ay nagpapababa ng halaga ng palitan at binabawasan ang kapangyarihan sa pagbili ng pera sa pamamagitan ng inflation, kaya nagpapataw ng isang uri ng buwis sa parehong lokal na populasyon at mga dayuhang nagpapautang. Pinapahina nito ang kumpiyansa sa mga dayuhang mamumuhunan at nagdudulot ng kawalan ng tiwala sa mga nagbabayad ng buwis bilang isang patuloy na siklo ng pagbagsak ng mga halaga ng palitan at pagtaas ng mga presyo.
Sa teorya, ang mga hindi malusog na resultang pang-ekonomiya ay dapat magbigay ng insentibo sa mga pamahalaan na huwag gumamit ng malawak Policy sa pananalapi upang matugunan ang mga utang. Ngunit ipinapalagay na mayroong demokratikong pananagutan, at ang mga internasyonal Markets ng utang ay nagmumungkahi na ang mga pinagkakautangan ay humatol sa iba't ibang mga pamahalaan nang iba sa markang iyon. Maraming mga umuusbong na pamahalaan sa merkado sa buong Latin America, Asia, Africa at Silangang Europa ay T makapag-isyu ng utang sa kanilang sariling mga pera dahil ang mga dayuhang institusyon ng pagpapahiram ay humihiling ng mas mataas kaysa sa abot-kayang mga rate ng interes, na nag-iiwan sa kanila na walang pagpipilian kundi ang mag-isyu ng mga bono sa dayuhang pera - pangunahin sa mga dolyar.
In fact, because international sovereign credit markets largely trade in debt denominated in dollars, it’s the U.S. – the very same country that Fitch just declared to be a less-than-perfect credit risk – that most gets to shape those assessments, creating distortions in what should be a free market. It’s another way the dollar’s reserve status affords the U.S.’s “exorbitant privilege,” in this case the power to influence geopolitical outcomes and push for the profit-interests of its banks.
The U.S. wields this power, in part, through the International Monetary Fund, within which, as the largest shareholder, it is the only country with sole veto power.
When the IMF swoops in with a bailout offer because Argentina or Turkey or Nigeria is staring down the barrel at debt defaults, it attaches constraints on the deal – fiscal austerity, macroeconomic reforms, higher interest rates and so forth – all in the name of restoring the confidence of foreign creditors. These politically unpopular policies are largely dictated by what the U.S. wishes, and often they can be dialed up or down in intensity to put pressure on a political enemy or support a friend.
Banks, meanwhile, with the help of perhaps the most powerful lobbying entity you’ve never heard of – the DC-based International Institute of Finance, or IIF – regularly emerge out of negotiations with their assets more or less intact. It’s a giant, international version of the “corporate socialism” that was observed in the U.S. following the massive bank bailouts during the mortgage crisis of 2008.
Enter Bitcoin
When, as a journalist in Argentina, I covered that country’s decade-long, torturous debt restructuring in the 2000s, I found myself sympathetic to the domestic left’s critique of the U.S.-led IMF’s excessive power. But I also had little faith in the corrupt and dysfunctional Argentine political system, which led me to begrudgingly view the IMF as a necessary disciplinarian. I found Argentine government protestations that Washington was stripping the country of its economic sovereignty to be self-serving, as it was really about protecting a corrupt political class.
Then, four years later, I got interested in Bitcoin and began to look back on that period quite differently. I saw a third, middle way.
The core issue that should have been at stake in Argentina’s debt negotiations was not the independence or sovereignty of the government per se, but of the Argentine people. And when it came to their monetary system, Argentines’ sovereignty had been stripped away by politicians who’d debased their wealth and restricted their access to their bank accounts.
Thanks to Bitcoin, the citizens of developing economies can now opt out of this undemocratic and distorted international system in which they are caught between their own corrupt, domestic government models and a Washington-Wall Street nexus of self-serving power.
That citizen element is what made El Salvador’s move to declare bitcoin legal tender interesting, far more so than the fact that the government also chose to build a stash of the digital currency, which President Nayeb Bukele and his supporters often described as an act of asserting the nation’s sovereignty in breaking its dependence on dollar reserves. I tend to think Bukele’s purchases recklessly exposed the country’s finances to intense volatility and investor mistrust. But the idea of explicitly granting freedom for people to choose bitcoin if they desired was a powerful, symbolic act of affirming citizens’ agency and sovereignty.
El Salvador is not the only country claiming to restore monetary sovereignty. China and its allies are exploring ways to reduce their dependence on the dollar. They believe central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can help them achieve that. Some are already working on digital swap models that provide workarounds to bypass the dollar in trade.
When combined with fiscal challenges in Washington, this process could move faster than we think, as the loss of confidence in dollar assets combines with an expansion of a parallel, Chinese-led system.
What should the U.S. do about it? It could exercise fiscal discipline, abandoning counterproductive debt ceiling standoffs for bipartisan efforts to sensibly reprioritize spending and taxation. But that currently sounds like an impossible utopia.
What it should do is lean into the principle of free choice and open systems in money. Giving people that choice would be consistent with its values, which are, in any case, the “soft power” pieces of what makes the dollar the preferred currency of the world.
There’s an implicit bargain in the world’s demand for dollars: it suggests people the world over expect the U.S. government to uphold its values with regards to human rights and property rights. They expect that it will not confiscate someone’s property, even if they are a foreigner without a vote, such as a bondholder (unless you’re a Russian oligarch, Iranian ruler or someone else on the sanctions list). And they expect the country’s democratic foundations are strong enough that a U.S. dictator won’t arise who would choose to debase the currency in favor of his own interests.
So, the counterintuitive way to boost the dollar’s standing and stave the threat posed by a deteriorating credit profile and challenges from China and co. is to let people choose how they want to transact. The U.S. should actively encourage the right to open monetary systems, whether that’s bitcoin or stablecoins, both of which will be shaped by the fate of two pieces of key crypto legislation currently in the House – which, it is feared, the Democrat-controlled Senate or White House will reject.
There’s much at stake in all this.
Примечание: мнения, выраженные в этой колонке, принадлежат автору и не обязательно отражают мнение CoinDesk, Inc. или ее владельцев и аффилированных лиц.
Michael J. Casey
Si Michael J. Casey ay Chairman ng The Decentralized AI Society, dating Chief Content Officer sa CoinDesk at co-author ng Our Biggest Fight: Reclaiming Liberty, Humanity, and Dignity in the Digital Age. Dati, si Casey ang CEO ng Streambed Media, isang kumpanyang kanyang itinatag upang bumuo ng provenance data para sa digital na nilalaman. Isa rin siyang senior advisor sa Digital Currency Initiative ng MIT Media Labs at senior lecturer sa MIT Sloan School of Management. Bago sumali sa MIT, gumugol si Casey ng 18 taon sa The Wall Street Journal, kung saan ang kanyang huling posisyon ay bilang isang senior columnist na sumasaklaw sa mga pandaigdigang pang-ekonomiyang gawain. Si Casey ay may akda ng limang aklat, kabilang ang "The Age of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money are Challenging the Global Economic Order" at "The Truth Machine: The Blockchain and the Future of Everything," parehong co-authored kasama si Paul Vigna. Sa pagsali sa CoinDesk ng buong oras, nagbitiw si Casey mula sa iba't ibang bayad na posisyon sa pagpapayo. Pinapanatili niya ang mga hindi nabayarang post bilang isang tagapayo sa mga organisasyong hindi para sa kita, kabilang ang Digital Currency Initiative ng MIT Media Lab at The Deep Trust Alliance. Siya ay isang shareholder at non-executive chairman ng Streambed Media. Si Casey ang nagmamay-ari ng Bitcoin.
