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Prediction Markets

Markets

Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn't Invade Taiwan

Betting against an invasion on the prediction market may yield almost 7x as much as Taiwan government bonds. Plus: Mideast turmoil barely changes U.S. presidential odds.

By Sam ReynoldsApr 15, 2024

Taiwanese currency (Photo: sharyn morrow).

Markets

Which Crypto Projects Will Airdrop Next? Prediction Markets Are Placing Bets

Eigenlayer has a 66% chance of sending users free tokens by June 30, the odds on Polymarket signal. Plus: Kalshi lands a big Wall Street account.

By Shaurya MalwaApr 8, 2024

A C-17 Globemaster III from the 437th Air Wing, Charleston Air Force Base, S.C., air delivery pallets of water and food to Mirebalais, Haiti, Jan 21, 2010 to be distributed by the members of the United Nations. Department of Defense assets have been deployed to assist in the Haiti relief effort following a magnitude 7 earthquake that hit the city on Jan. 12, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.)

Markets

Who Will Trump Pick for Veep? Polymarket Gives Tim Scott Best Odds: Prediction Markets

Plus: Free money? "Democrat wins New York" contract trades at 90 cents on the dollar.

By Sam Reynolds, Shaurya MalwaApr 1, 2024

Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)

Markets

How to Design Better On-Chain Governance

An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.

By Malte KliemannMar 27, 2024

(Sam Poullain/Unsplash)

Tech

How Many Years Will SBF Get? Jury's Out on Betting Platform Polymarket

Plus: Tesla's delivery numbers will fall short of record, Kalshi traders signal; "Ghostbusters" fandom underestimated.

By Sam ReynoldsMar 25, 2024

Blockchain's fortune tellers have no more a crystal ball than in any other sphere of life. But these predictions are as good as any. (Francis Hayman/Metropolitan Museum of Art, modified by CoinDesk)

Markets

Nearly $100M Wagered on U.S. Presidential Election on Polymarket

Bettors on the crypto-based prediction market platform see a clear path to victory for Trump, and are bullish on Ethereum's ETH hitting an all-time high in 2024 – just not before Solana's SOL.

By Sam Reynolds, Shaurya MalwaMar 18, 2024

President Trump Delivers Remarks in New Orleans; Jan 14, 2019

Finance

Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)

The CFTC-regulated platform will let traders bet on how high ETH will go this year and other price outcomes amid renewed interest in both crypto and prediction markets.

By Marc HochsteinMar 18, 2024

Group portrait centered on Isadora Duncan, seated with her hands in her lap holding a crystal ball and gazing downwards. She is surrounded by six other female dancers who are posing in standing, kneeling, or sitting positions, and all gazing at her. In the background are four curtained windows and potted plants.

Policy

U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets

Companies such as PredictIt and Kalshi would get "regulatory clarity" under rule in coming months, according to the chairman of the derivatives regulator.

By Jesse HamiltonMar 12, 2024

Rostin Behnam

Markets

He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story

Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay's resignation – though he's yet to profit from his scoops.

By Sam ReynoldsJan 20, 2024

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Markets

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket

Polymarket saw betting contracts worth more than $5.7 million change hands on Wednesday.

By Omkar GodboleJan 11, 2024

Bitcoin ETF frenzy drives volume growth on prediction markets. (Obsahovka/Pixabay)
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