Prediction Markets


Finance

Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Taking Bets on Whether Russia Will Use a Nuclear Weapon by 2023

Traders on Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. users, are putting a 6% probability of Russia doing so.

El presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin. (DimitroSevastopol/Pixabay)

Policy

Election Betting Site PredictIt Sues to Block CFTC-Ordered Shutdown

The CFTC’s August action calls for the site to be closed for U.S. users by February 15.

PredictIt, which allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events, has been ordered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down U.S. activity in six months. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

Popular Election-Betting Site PredictIt Throttled by US Regulator

The site where people can wager on the outcome of political battles has until February to close its U.S. operations, said the CFTC.

PredictIt, which allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events, has been ordered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down U.S. activity in six months. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Layer 2

Is Crypto Sports Betting Ready for the Big Leagues?

Sports bettors eagerly await a blockchain-powered sports betting service with audited smart contracts, user-friendly policies, low commissions and fees – and meaningful volume.

Three men in a betting shop (Image Source/Getty Images, Modified by CoinDesk)

Layer 2

Wanna Bet? Crypto Prediction Markets Could Be a New ‘Source of Truth’

Andrew Eaddy and Clay Graubard made the case for empowering individuals through technology as trust in institutions declines.

Clay Graubard, Co-Founder, Baserate.io and Andrew Eaddy, Co-Founder, Baserate.io

Opinion

Forecasting, Prediction Markets and the Age of Better Information

Quantified forecasting is an invaluable and yet underused tool, and prediction markets appear a vital tool for its adoption.

Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

Finance

Polymarket Introduces New Information Markets After CFTC Fine, but Not for US Traders

The decentralized predictions marketplace received a $1.4 million fine from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

(Getty Images/Tetra Images RF)

Markets

‘Wen Token?’: Polymarket’s New Airdrop Futures Market Has Answers

Speculators can now bet on whether big-name crypto projects will airdrop a native token in Q1 2022.

(Quino Al/Unsplash)

Policy

The CFTC vs. the Truth

If Polymarket can crowdsource a more accurate rendering of reality, then shouldn’t the greatest number of people be able to access it?

(Aedrian/Unsplash)